A Treasury Rescue, a Walmart Warning, and a Market Waiting on Jackson Hole
U.S. markets closed out a week dominated by the bond market and the escalating conflict with Iran. On Monday, stocks fell as the detention of a ship in the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices soaring and the yield on the 30-year Treasury note hit a 19-year high, while the August Empire State manufacturing index came in higher than expected at 20.6. On Wednesday, the Treasury announced that it would at least double its repurchases of long-term debt, from $2 billion to a minimum of $4 billion per operation—a move that sent the 10-year Treasury yield plummeting to 4.66%, pushed the dollar index to a three-month low of 98.79, and triggered a rally in stocks, gold, and bitcoin. The relief was short-lived: on Thursday, yields rebounded, the 10-year Treasury yield rose back to 4.695%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.87% to 7,641.16, with the Dow dropping 703.84 points to 52,759.21 and the Nasdaq falling 1% to 26,067.17. Walmart was at the center of it all, falling nearly 9% after reporting its slowest U.S. comparable sales growth in more than six years and weak guidance that reignited doubts about consumer spending. The minutes from the FOMC’s July meeting revealed a divided committee: the rate was kept at 3.50%–3.75% by a vote of nine to three; several participants advocated for an immediate 25-basis-point hike, and many deemed further tightening likely if inflation does not converge toward 2%.

