Fed Grows Cautious as Strong Economy Dampens Hopes of Rate Cut Amid Persistent Inflation and Rising Deficit

Markets have adjusted their expectations for future Fed rate cuts following the release of strong economic data. Prior to the September employment report, investors were forecasting a 67% probability of a rate cut in the remainder of 2024. However, the strong performance of the labor market, coupled with a rise in consumer prices and weekly jobless claims, has led to a reduction in the probability to 45%.

In turn, we highlight that Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, has indicated that the Fed could omit a rate cut at its next meeting if economic data justifies such a decision. This shows a more cautious stance on monetary policy easing, especially if inflationary indicators remain persistent.

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