Minutes from the FOMC's July meeting, released Wednesday, helped set the stage for Powell's strong signal on Friday that the time has come to cut rates. The minutes showed that the vast majority of Fed officials believe a rate cut at the next meeting in September is appropriate. In addition, we highlighted that several members favored cutting in July. Nearly all expected continued disinflation, while some saw risk of further deterioration in the labor market. The meeting preceded the brief bout of high market volatility in early August, and the minutes did not hint at an initial cut of more than 0.25%.
This week the Bureau of Labor Statistics released preliminary data indicating that the U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than expected in the 12 months ending March. This equates to a monthly average of 68,000 fewer jobs, suggesting that the labor market is not as tight as previously thought. This downward revision, the largest since 2009, could prompt the Fed to reconsider its approach, balancing employment concerns with its fight against inflation. Despite this revision, average monthly payroll growth remained at a solid 175,000 jobs.
Following strong retail sales data last week, Goldman Sachs downgraded the odds of a U.S. recession from 25% to 20%. Jan Hatzius, chief economist, said the latest data show no signs of recession. He added that a strong jobs report in August would reduce the odds further, to 15%.
The real estate market is beginning to show encouraging signs. During July, existing home sales rose 1.3% in July, the first increase since February. The national median existing home price in July was $422,600, up 4.2% from a year earlier and just below June's record high, the National Association of Realtors reported. New home sales rose 10.6% last month due to lower mortgage rates.
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