Strong Labor Market Drives Rate Cut Expectations: November Surprises with 227,000 New Jobs

U.S. nonfarm payrolls posted solid growth of 227,000 jobs in November, far outpacing the 36,000 jobs added in October, when hurricanes and strikes had affected hiring. Data for the previous two months were revised upward by 56,000, further strengthening the perception of a recovering labor market. However, the Labor Department's household survey showed a drop of 355,000 jobs, generating some concern. Despite this discrepancy, average hourly earnings grew by 4% year-over-year, slightly above expectations, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%. On the other hand, the October JOLTS report indicated a tighter labor market, with job openings increasing to 7.74 million from 7.37 million the previous month, and a quits rate reaching 2.1%, the highest level since May. This reflects growing confidence among workers in their job prospects.

These data led futures markets to increase the odds of a December interest rate cut to 90%.

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