The week in the US was marked by mixed economic signals, market volatility, and increased political and geopolitical uncertainty, which kept investors cautious.

On the macroeconomic front, activity showed resilience, albeit with regional differences. The Chicago PMI index surprised on the upside, reaching 57.7 points, its highest level in almost four years, reflecting an acceleration in the manufacturing sector. Similarly, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index returned to positive territory (+0.18), suggesting a stronger-than-expected start to the year. However, the improvement was not uniform: the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing indicator returned to contractionary territory (-3.2), showing that the recovery still varies between regions.

Inflation once again captured the market’s attention. Producer prices rose 0.5% month-on-month in January, while core wholesale inflation rose 0.8%, its largest increase in six months. In year-on-year terms, the PPI index stood at 2.9%, moderating slightly from the previous 3% but exceeding expectations. These data reinforce the perception that disinflation could progress more slowly, keeping the Fed cautious about future rate cuts. At the same time, the real estate market continues to slow down: housing prices rose just 0.1% monthly according to the FHFA, and the Case-Shiller index registered an annual increase of 1.4%, close to two-year lows. However, the 30-year mortgage rate fell below 6% for the first time since 2022, offering some relief for residential demand.